The population is highly concentrated in urban zones. The districts of Moscow and Saint-Petersburg alone represent 36% of the 143.6 million Russians counted in 2015.
The population of women between 14 and 34 years exceeds 21 million; the segment 25-35 years old accounts for about 12 million.
The Russian market is estimated to be the fourth largest in Europe, second only to the British, the German and the French. All categories included, this market amounted to RUB 548’050 million in 2015 (about CHF 8,5 billion). After a remarkable two-digits growth in the past 4 years, the market is expected to contract by 3% until 2018 before going back to growth in 2019.
The category of colour cosmetics (nail products, lip products, eye and facial make-up) represented 14% of the market in 2015, namely RUB 75’950,9 million (about CHF 1,7 billion). It follows the same trend and is expected to contract by 2.3% until 2018 before returning to growth in 2019. Concretely for a company active in the three segments studied in this document, the total potential market size is RUB 30’055,4 million (about CHF 462,4 million) split into three categories:
1. Lipsticks, estimated at RUB 18’413,4 million (about CHF 283,3 million);
2. Lip gloss, estimated at RUB 5’367,7 (about CHF 82,6 million)
3. Nail polish, estimated at RUB 6’274,3 million (about CHF 96,5 million)
Forecasts in these categories follow the trend of colour cosmetics: the market is not expected to grow before end 2018, except the segment of nail polish, which will stagnate until 2020 and possibly beyond.
Most lipsticks are either sold below RUB 1000 or above RUB 2000. The mid-price segment represents only 14% of all products analyzed, whereas the first segment (RUB 501-1000), namely mass products, represents 21% of the sample analyzed. It is interesting to note that the premium segment (RUB 2001 and above) reaches 56% for lip gloss. For nail polish, the mid-price range (under RUB 500) represents a staggering 48%.
Despite a crushing majority of foreign companies, either producing locally or importing from abroad, local companies such as Kalina concern or Natura Siberica are growing, mainly thanks to low prices, an increasing interest for natural products, regular new launches and a growing support to patriotic production (“Made in Russia”) from the population.
The key players in colour cosmetics are L’Oréal, Avon, Oriflamme, Procter & Gamble, Gradient GK and the Group LVMH (operating under the company Seldico OOO in Russia). This being said, in the mid-price range of the three segments targeted in this study, direct competitors would be the American Clinique (Estée Lauder Inc), the Italian Collistar (Bolton Group PV) the German ArtDeco GmbH and, eventually, the French manufacturer Orly International Inc for nail polish.
The past few years have seen a considerable concentration on specialized beauty retailers: almost half of cosmetic products were sold through this channel in 2015, to the detriment of direct sales (10,3%). Grocery retailers, which 15 years ago barely offered cosmetics, now account for close to 20%. Drugstores and pharmacies have been increasing their share since 2011 to reach 13% retail value in 2015. Hair salons, beauty spas and high-end clothing magazines appear to be completely overlooked by the Russian cosmetic industry.
Online sales are growing fast in Russia and, despite a slower rate, cosmetic products are part of this growth. Major players in cosmetics only recently started investing online and now increasingly promote their products through digital promotions, social networks and fully professional featured websites.
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